Widening Trade Surplus with the United States
Indonesia’s official statistics show that its trade surplus with the United States widened to $8.57 billion in the first half of 2025, solidifying the US position as the largest contributor to Indonesia’s overall trade surplus. This figure represents a considerable increase from the $6.45 billion surplus recorded during the same period last year. The strong performance was primarily driven by a robust increase in non-oil and gas trade, with a surplus of $9.92 billion in this sector, up from $7.70 billion. As a deputy at the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) noted, electrical machinery and equipment were the main drivers of this surge. This positive trade data for the first half of the year provides a clear indication of the enduring strength and demand for Indonesian non-oil and gas products in the American market, a crucial factor for Indonesia’s economic resilience in a constantly evolving global trade landscape.
Navigating New Tariffs Through Strategic Agreements
The robust trade performance comes at a time of significant change in bilateral trade policy, as the US unveiled new tariffs that would take effect on August 7, subjecting Indonesian goods to a 19 percent tax. However, this new rate is part of a recently negotiated trade deal that is significantly lower than the 32 percent tariff previously threatened by the Trump administration. In exchange for this more favorable tariff rate, Indonesia has committed to increasing its imports from the US and allowing American goods to enter its market duty-free. The deal includes substantial pledges, such as $15 billion worth of American energy purchases and $4.5 billion of US farm product imports. As a result of these strategic agreements, Indonesia’s imports from the US have already begun to increase, rising to $4.87 billion in the first half of the year, up from $4.56 billion in the previous year.
Import Growth Lags Behind Key Rivals
While Indonesia’s strategic trade agreement with the US has yielded positive results in the form of a widened surplus and increased imports, a comparative analysis reveals that the growth rate of imports from the US still lags far behind that of China, Indonesia’s main rival. Data from the BPS shows that Indonesia’s imports from China surged from $32.77 billion to an impressive $40 billion over the same period, demonstrating a much faster growth trajectory. This comparison underscores the ongoing challenge for Indonesia to balance its trade relationships. Furthermore, BPS officials noted that it is still too early to fully assess the long-term impact of the initial 10 percent universal tariff on Indonesia’s exports to the US, as the tax did not apply to all commodities. This suggests that while the recent agreements are a positive step, the full picture of the trade relationship’s future remains to be seen.
