World Bank Projects Easing GDP Growth as Global Trade Slowdown Intensifies
The World Bank (WB) has released its ‘Taking Stock – Vietnam Economic Update, September 2025’ in Hà Nội, forecasting that Vietnam’s GDP growth will ease to 6.6 per cent in 2025 and further to 6.1 per cent in 2026, as the anticipated downturn in global trade begins to exert pressure and export growth naturally slows down.
The WB report noted that the country’s Gross Domestic Product experienced robust growth of 7.5 per cent during the first half of 2025.
This strong performance was primarily driven by vigorous export activity, as local firms accelerated their orders and shipments amid heightened uncertainty regarding the future direction of global trade policies.
Investment growth, measured at constant prices, reached an encouraging 8 per cent, which was supported by the resilience of foreign investment inflows and a faster-than-expected disbursement of public investment funds by the government.
Final consumption also saw a significant rise of 8 per cent, largely propelled by a strong and sustained rebound in the critical tourism sector.
Citing detailed data for the first six months of the year, the report highlighted that exports surged by 14.2 per cent year-on-year, with shipments to the United States—Vietnam’s single largest export market—registering an exceptional increase of 28.3 per cent.
Imports also climbed by 16 per cent in the first half to meet the higher volume of orders required during this intense export push.
However, the WB experts expect this rapid export growth to naturally moderate in the latter half of the year as the external environment becomes more challenging, leading to the reduced GDP growth forecast for the coming years.
Global Headwinds Dampen Vietnam’s Export Outlook
The World Bank’s report indicates that the rapid export growth Vietnam enjoyed earlier in the year is expected to moderate due to a projected slowdown in global economic activity and lingering geopolitical tensions, which will directly impact demand for Vietnamese products and weigh on GDP growth.
The report noted that “New export orders showed signs of improvement in July 2025 after the Việt Nam–United States trade agreement was announced, but they remain in low territory.”
This suggests that while positive signals exist, the overall trading environment remains fragile.
As the United States is Vietnam’s leading export market, the country is inherently highly exposed to these global developments and trade policy shifts.
According to WB experts, global economic activity is now set to slow from 2.8 per cent in 2024 to 2.3 per cent in 2025 and 2.4 per cent in 2026.
These revised global growth rates are notably lower than the WB’s earlier January 2025 forecast, primarily due to weaker global trade expansion and the persistence of geopolitical tensions around the world.
The United States and China, Vietnam’s two largest trading partners, are both anticipated to experience deceleration in the second half of this year, a trend that will further limit the crucial external demand for Vietnamese products.
Additionally, a pervasive increase in global policy uncertainty is weighing negatively on both investor and consumer confidence across markets.
For highly export-oriented economies like Vietnam, these external trends readily affect overall growth, resulting in the World Bank’s adjusted projection of 6.6 per cent GDP growth for 2025.
The report explicitly states that “After strong momentum in the first half of 2025, Việt Nam’s economy is expected to slow during the remaining months of 2025 as overall export growth likely returns to rates seen in more stable periods.”
Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Resilience
The report stresses that Vietnam’s economic outlook remains uncertain and highly dependent on global trade developments, underscoring the critical need for prudent and flexible policymaking to sustain GDP growth and build resilience against future external risks.
Mariam Sherman, the World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, emphasized at the report launch that the current economic momentum should not be taken for granted and could quickly weaken if global headwinds and trade disruptions materialize fully.
These significant uncertainties clearly highlight the need for policymakers to demonstrate prudence and flexibility in their decision-making process to effectively navigate the rapidly changing economic environment and find the optimal course of action.
The report’s baseline forecast assumes a smaller net-export contribution to overall GDP growth going forward.
Looking further ahead, the WB projects that GDP growth will bottom out at 6.1 per cent in 2026 as the global trade slowdown fully filters through, followed by an expected recovery to 6.5 per cent in 2027, provided that world trade conditions improve and Vietnam continues to compete effectively within global value chains.
Experts suggested that, to successfully sustain and enhance this long-term growth trajectory, Vietnam must continue its efforts to position itself as an increasingly attractive and reliable destination for global businesses.
Concurrently, supporting robust domestic activities and service sectors will become increasingly important to effectively bolster GDP growth against external risks.
As one expert suggested, “Expanding high-quality public investment can play a role here. By creating an enabling environment for business and encouraging private consumption, Việt Nam can build resilience and secure a sustainable economic future.”
