ASL Securities Forecasts Volatility for SET Index Amid Global Trends
The Deputy Managing Director of the Media Marketing Department at ASL Securities, Mr. Suchet Suktae, provided an analytical forecast for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index during the “Kaohoon” program on November 25, 2025, anticipating the support levels for the day to be 1,250 – 1,248 points, with resistance expected at 1,263/1,270 points. Despite observing an upward movement in various foreign indices, Mr. Suchet suggested that the SET Index is likely to begin the morning trading session lower.
Nevertheless, he noted that key domestic sectors, specifically the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and banking sectors, are expected to provide foundational support, preventing a steeper initial decline. This market behavior underscores the persistent influence of large, stable sectors on the overall direction of the Thai stock Economy, acting as reliable anchors against external market pressures.
Mr. Suchet emphasized that the market’s trajectory in the afternoon would be contingent upon the performance of European indices. Should the European market show an upward trend, the Thai market could potentially follow suit and see corresponding growth.
Conversely, if the European market declines, he issued a warning, advising investors to closely monitor whether the SET Index drops below the critical level of 1,245 points. A breach of this particular support level would act as a strong technical signal, indicating a potential shift towards a selling trend as investors move strategically to realize profits accrued during previous periods of growth, which could further exacerbate downward pressure on the index.
End-of-Year Market Drivers and Sector-Specific Recommendations
As the SET Index approaches the end of the calendar year, Mr. Suchet identified several key factors and primary sectors that continue to wield significant influence over overall market movement and investor sentiment. He specifically highlighted the persistent impact of mutual funds as major institutional players whose strategic repositioning often drives substantial trading volumes.
Furthermore, he reiterated the ongoing importance of primary sectors such as banking, ICT, hospitality, and energy sectors, noting their sheer size and profitability ensures they remain fundamental determinants of the index’s direction and overall Finance health. Looking forward, Mr. Suchet suggested a rotation in market leadership, predicting that tourism stocks are poised to take a more dominant role in driving investor interest.
He explicitly named major players in this sector, including Airports of Thailand PCL (AOT), Minor International PCL (MINT), Central Plaza Hotel PCL (CENTEL), and ERW, signaling confidence in the sector’s post-pandemic recovery and long-term Investment appeal. In terms of specific stock recommendations, the analyst from ASL Securities highlighted CPALL for its demonstrated strong growth momentum, advising investors to capitalize on its upward trajectory.
He also recommended a specific strategy for CPAXT, suggesting investors adopt a rebound strategy given that its stock price had fallen to notably low levels, presenting a potential value opportunity for those willing to assume a calculated Business risk based on historical valuation metrics.
MSCI Rebalancing and Caution on Trading Volume Volatility
A crucial factor contributing to recent market dynamics is the ongoing impact of the MSCI rebalancing in Thai stocks. Mr. Suchet acknowledged that this major institutional event could continue to affect the day’s trading volume, though he cautioned that the exact duration and ultimate scale of this effect remain difficult to predict with certainty.
Historically, he observed that the material impact of such rebalancing events has typically been confined to just a few hours of intensive trading activity. This pattern of short-term volatility related to global index adjustments requires investors to exercise heightened awareness.
Over the preceding two to three days, the Thai stock market had exhibited a distinct pattern: a strong, sudden surge in trading volume occurred during the morning session, often driven by institutional adjustments, followed by a noticeable and immediate slowing down in the afternoon. This afternoon decline in trading activity is a significant concern, as reduced volume can erode investor confidence and place downward weight on the SET Index.
The Finance expert at ASL Securities therefore advised a cautious approach to capital deployment, recommending that investors avoid making large, single-block Investments all at once. Instead, he implicitly endorsed a strategy of measured, staggered entry to mitigate the risks associated with the high morning volatility and the subsequent confidence-chipping slowdown observed in the afternoon trading sessions, ensuring a more prudent approach to capital management in the current uncertain Economy environment.
Financial Analyst Commentary: Sectoral Rotation and Liquidity Risk
The analysis provided by ASL Securities points toward a subtle but significant sectoral rotation currently underway in the Thai equity market, moving capital from traditional anchor sectors into recovery-play tourism stocks as the year concludes. While the banking, ICT, and energy sectors are noted for their supportive weight, the shift of leadership to highly-liquid tourism stocks like AOT and MINT reflects investor discounting of the current Economy outlook and aggressive pricing of future recovery narratives driven by international travel normalization.
Critically, Mr. Suchet’s cautionary note regarding the volatility and subsequent slowdown in daily trading volume—a typical byproduct of large, non-fundamental MSCI rebalancing flows—highlights a significant liquidity risk for retail and mid-cap Investment. The morning surge represents an institutional phenomenon unrelated to underlying domestic Business fundamentals, while the afternoon slump indicates a shallow market depth outside of mandated index adjustments.
This bifurcated trading pattern reduces the efficiency of price discovery and increases the slippage cost for large-scale trading, reinforcing the analyst’s advice to avoid concentrated, single-point investments. The market’s susceptibility to such technical events suggests that the overall Finance health remains fragile, relying more on mandated Investment flows and speculative recovery bets than organic, broad-based Economy strength.
Regional Market Impact: Exacerbating ASEAN Capital Market Fragmentation
The volatility observed in the SET Index, specifically its susceptibility to external factors like European market movements and institutional events such as the MSCI rebalancing, highlights a growing fragmentation risk within the ASEAN capital markets. While Singapore and Vietnam are increasingly viewed by international Finance as growth-driven Investment hubs, the Thai market’s current pattern—where technical trading overshadows fundamental Business performance—suggests a perceived shift toward a lower-alpha regional weighting by global institutional investors.
This reliance on short-term external liquidity, rather than robust domestic retail and institutional depth, raises the effective cost of equity for Thai corporations and makes the local Economy more vulnerable to global risk-off sentiment. The suggested rotation into tourism stocks, while logical for Thailand’s sector-specific recovery, may be interpreted regionally as a defensive play within a challenged market, rather than an aggressive pursuit of broad-based Economy growth.
Crucially, the analyst’s advice for staggered Investment to counter afternoon volume declines is a tacit acknowledgment of the SET’s current structural liquidity issue relative to regional peers, where deeper pools of capital minimize the impact of institutional rebalancing “tells.” If this trend persists, Thailand risks becoming less attractive for long-term Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) seeking exposure to diversified ASEAN growth narratives, compelling investors to favor more stable and liquid markets like Singapore or the high-growth frontier markets like Vietnam for their primary regional capital allocation.
