Krungsri Analysis Highlights Gunkul’s Benefit from Thai Energy Policy
According to a detailed analysis conducted by Krungsri Securities (KSS), Gunkul Engineering Public Company Limited (SET: GUNKUL) is exceptionally well-positioned to benefit from substantial government support for new wind power projects, the planned expansion of critical transmission lines, and strategic new energy policy initiatives.
While the company’s near-term profit figures are forecast to experience a slight dip from the high bases set in the previous year, the KSS analyst highlights a continued, robust momentum in project execution and numerous additional growth opportunities across GUNKUL’s established core and emerging business segments.
The National Energy Policy Council’s (NEPC) recent decision on August 22 confirmed a major step forward: the Thai government approved the signing of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for the remaining wind power projects.
GUNKUL is a key operator among the selected phase 2 renewable energy companies, holding capacity totaling 284 MW, and is fully expected to sign its PPA in the immediate next phase of the process.
Beyond wind power, the government is proactively advancing major plans for the large-scale construction of new transmission lines scheduled between 2026 and 2031.
This effort focuses primarily on transmission systems in the northern provinces of Nan, Phrae, and Uttaradit.
These critical lines are valued at a total of THB 26.2 billion and are primarily intended to facilitate the necessary electricity imports from Laos-based power plants, such as the Luang Prabang and Pak Beng dams, securing a long-term energy supply for the nation.
Policy Direction Under Bhumjaithai Offers Multiple Growth Upsides
The specific policy direction pursued by the Bhumjaithai Party government is expected to further support GUNKUL’s long-term growth trajectory by providing direct benefits in both the renewable energy and cannabis sectors, according to Krungsri.
The potential for additional long-term growth is strongly tied to the government’s policy agenda.
This agenda includes targeted policies aimed at directly reducing household electricity bills by THB 450 per month through a nationwide program offering free solar rooftop installation.
As a major Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) player, GUNKUL stands to gain significantly from the increased demand and government tenders associated with this policy.
Furthermore, the policies reflect renewed opportunities in the cannabis sector, reflecting the Bhumjaithai Party’s historic advocacy for free medical cannabis, a business segment in which GUNKUL holds assets.
Krungsri Securities also outlined a significant scenario for potential financial upside: if GUNKUL proceeds with the sale of 50% of its wind project stakes to Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), equating to 142 Equity MW, KSS estimates for 2028-2030 could see an additional upside of 1.8%, 7.4%, and 11%, respectively.
This transaction could potentially add THB 0.40 per share to the target price, demonstrating the substantial value of the wind power assets.
Importantly, the current estimates from Krungsri do not yet factor in potential upside from additional EPC and Trading contract wins or a possible strong rebound and growth in the cannabis business segment, suggesting that the overall growth potential for GUNKUL might be even greater than presently modeled by KSS analysts.
Near-Term Profit Moderation and Long-Term ‘Buy’ Recommendation
In the immediate term, GUNKUL’s normalized profit is expected to moderate from recent high points, but a substantial project backlog and a positive long-term outlook for renewable energy solidify Krungsri’s ‘Buy’ recommendation for the stock.
For the short term, GUNKUL’s normalized profit for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) is forecast to decline on both a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis.
This expected dip is a result of the particularly high earnings bases established in the corresponding periods of 3Q24 and 2Q25.
Normalized profit for 3Q25 is currently expected to fall within the healthy range of THB 350-400 million.
Nevertheless, this level of profit remains robust, supported by the continuous revenue generation from the EPC and Trading segments.
The company currently maintains a substantial project backlog of approximately THB 4 billion, a portion of which is scheduled for revenue recognition in the second half of 2025.
Adding to the positive outlook, additional project bids for renewable energy phases 1 and 2 are slated to come online in 2026 and 2027, ensuring a clear pipeline of future revenue streams.
Furthermore, wind conditions, which are critical for the performance of its existing wind power portfolio, are anticipated to improve naturally in the second half of 2025.
Following a comprehensive evaluation of the company’s strategic positioning, project pipeline, and the supportive policy environment, Krungsri Securities is maintaining its ‘Buy’ recommendation on GUNKUL, setting a target price of THB 2.40 per share.
This recommendation reflects confidence in GUNKUL’s ability to capitalize on Thailand’s renewable energy transition and its diversified business model.
