Navigating the Challenges for Thai Home Retailers
The share prices of major Thai home retailer companies saw increases in midday trading on Wednesday, reflecting a positive investor response despite cautious sector earnings forecasts.
Siam Global House Public Company Limited (SET: GLOBAL) led the surge, with its share price climbing 3.92% or THB 0.30 to reach THB 7.95, recording a trading value of THB 54.12 million.
Following this trend, Dohome Public Company Limited (SET: DOHOME) experienced a rise of 1.55% or THB 0.06 to THB 3.92, on a trading value of THB 41.42 million.
Home Product Center Public Company Limited (SET: HMPRO) also saw a modest gain, increasing by 0.71% or THB 0.05 to THB 7.10, with THB 75.29 million traded.
Despite these positive market movements, brokerage firm Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) has projected that the overall third-quarter 2025 earnings for Thai home improvement and home retailer companies are likely to show a slight dip year-on-year.
This anticipated sector-wide decline is primarily attributed to the expected subdued operational performance from market giant HMPRO, which continues to face significant headwinds in the current economic climate.
Mixed Earnings Outlook for the Third Quarter
The third-quarter projections from Finansia Syrus Securities paint a mixed picture for individual home retailer performance.
HMPRO, a key player in the sector, is forecast to see its quarterly profit drop by 7% year-on-year, a substantial decrease that weighs heavily on the entire industry’s outlook.
Conversely, GLOBAL is expected to fare better, with analysts anticipating it will post flat earnings for the quarter.
This stability for GLOBAL is supported by an encouraging recovery in its core operations, as evidenced by positive total sales growth and stable same-store sales growth (SSSG), though its share of profit is still projected to see a minor decline.
DOHOME’s outlook for the third quarter is similar to GLOBAL’s, with the company also expected to report a flat year-on-year profit.
This steady result for DOHOME is mainly anchored by a low comparative base from the previous year, as the company simultaneously grapples with a contraction in total sales and sharply negative SSSG.
These varied forecasts underscore the challenging and complex operating environment currently faced by all home retailer businesses in Thailand, where success is highly dependent on effective management of operational costs and inventory.
Fourth Quarter Momentum and Sector Dependencies
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Finansia Syrus Securities identifies a potential stand-out performer, with GLOBAL expected to gain significant momentum.
The brokerage forecasts that GLOBAL’s continued operational recovery will position it favorably to capitalize on year-end consumer demand.
In contrast, HMPRO is likely to remain under considerable pressure, with the burden of ongoing year-on-year declines in SSSG continuing to dampen its earnings prospects.
Furthermore, a specific concern noted by analysts for DOHOME relates to its gross profit margins, which could be adversely affected by an expected increase in steel sales.
While higher sales volume is generally positive, steel typically carries lower margins, potentially dragging down the overall profitability for the home retailer.
FSS emphasizes a critical caution: the broader performance of the entire home retailer sector remains fundamentally tied to external macroeconomic factors and the introduction of effective government stimulus measures.
These direct interventions are vital for boosting consumer spending on home improvement and construction materials.
While GLOBAL is currently highlighted as the preferred short-term investment pick due to its strong Q4 momentum, the sector as a whole requires continuous, close monitoring for the emergence of new, positive catalysts to sustain growth.
